Navigating the Enrollment Cliff: Strategies for Higher Education Marketers

Full Transcript

[00:00:00] Allison Turcio: Welcome to the Application, the Go-to How-to podcast for Higher Education marketers. I'm your host, Allison TecIO, assistant Vice President of Enrollment and Marketing at Sienna College. Whether you're a seasoned pro or just starting out, this podcast is packed with practical tips and actionable advice to help you elevate your marketing game.

[00:00:29] In each snackable episode, we bring in experts to share their insights and experience on the topics that matter most. To you got a question or idea you'd like us to cover? Email team enroll fi.org or reach out to me on Twitter or LinkedIn. The application is part of the enroll I podcast. And if you like this show, you'll definitely wanna check out our other Higher Ed focus podcasts on admissions, tech, marketing, and more.

[00:00:56] They're packed with stories, ideas, and tools to help you be the best in your field. [00:01:00] All right, it's time for the show.

[00:01:13] Today's episode is all about how higher ed marketers can help their institutions prepare for the enrollment cliff. My guest is Dr. Carrie Phillips. Carrie is the Chief Communications and marketing Officer at the University of Arkansas Little Rock. She recently earned her doctorate from Texas Tech. And in doing so, studied how regional public universities are using marketing to mitigate the enrollment cliff.

[00:01:38] I'm sure you can all see why. I'm very excited to have Carrie on the show. 

[00:01:41] Welcome, Carrie. 

[00:01:43] Carrie Phillips: Thank you so much for having me. I'm so excited to be here and be part of this conversation. 

[00:01:49] Well, I thank you very much and let's just start with why you studied this as part of your dissertation. What is the enrollment cliff and why was it worth study?

[00:01:58] From a higher ed marketing [00:02:00] perspective, 

[00:02:00] first off, the enrollment cliff, it really is a time that's starting in 2025 and then going all the way through 2037. There will be, depending on the predictions between 350 and 400,000 fewer traditional age high school students coming to college. And so, um, I got really interested in this almost a little bit by happenstance.

[00:02:25] At my prior institution, we formed a new division and so all of a sudden, um, enrollment and financial aid and marketing were all in the same area. And so as I was trying to get up to speed on all of that work and how that kind of happened, I started hearing about this enrollment cliff and that this was gonna be a huge change for our industry.

[00:02:48] And I started talking to my marketing peers and nobody knew about. . And so I quickly realized, wait a second, this is gonna be a huge impact to our industry and nobody [00:03:00] is talking about it or thinking about it or preparing about it. And we should probably do something about that. Yes, yes, 

[00:03:07] Allison Turcio: we should. 

[00:03:08] Carrie Phillips: Yes. . So that's really how I kind of fell into it.

[00:03:12] Um, and then as I, I learned more about it, what really got my attention is kind of the business side of this. And so if you do the math and you say, That, let's just say college tuition remains flat. So this math is based on that, but if you look at the number of students that won't be coming into higher ed, we're looking at a 4.2 billion impact to our industry.

[00:03:36] Um, and that just sheer magnitude of that number just really cemented that this is something that we needed to study and I wanted to understand how marketing might be able to. . 

[00:03:47] Allison Turcio: Yeah. We are facing similar things at Sienna, and we've done the math on. The number of students that will be coming from our top feeder high schools, for instance, and that number drops [00:04:00] between 11 and 15%.

[00:04:01] So it, it really hits home if you try to use your own data to figure out what's the impact on my college right now. I do think it's important to note that we are talking about traditionally aged students, the students coming right out of high school, and not only will there be less of them, they will be much more diverse.

[00:04:22] Absolutely two. . Yeah. So our audience is changing. 

[00:04:26] Carrie Phillips: That's it. Exactly. So, you know, this whole enrollment cliff, the, the start of it really ties back to the 2007 recession and people decided, um, to maybe wait a little bit longer for children or maybe culturally made some different decisions than others in the past and made.

[00:04:42] And so that's kind of where that traditional drop off comes. But at the same time, what we start to see is we see. A breakdown in the students. So the white traditional student is gonna decrease pretty drastically in the hundreds of thousands of students. And we're gonna see a lot of [00:05:00] other, um, groups of students start to come into their own as they consider college.

[00:05:05] So, for instance, um, Hispanic and. Students are expected to grow during this time by over a hundred thousand. And so I think that's gonna also change the conversation because these students that are, that are coming, that are maybe a little bit more from a diverse or underrepresented background, they have different needs.

[00:05:22] They have different supports that we as institutions need to be putting into place to help make sure they're successful. So a, we're gonna see competition increase in terms of fewer overall. But in terms of a cost perspective, we're going to be spending more to support these new students and their their needs.

[00:05:41] So it's also gonna cost us more on the other side of that equation. 

[00:05:45] Allison Turcio: At the same time as probably considering how we can appeal to new audiences where there is growth, such as the adult learner. So a lot for an institution to be thinking about and tackling all at once. Absolutely. 

[00:05:59] Carrie Phillips: You know, there are a lot of [00:06:00] different audiences.

[00:06:01] Uh, there were some projections in the 1980s that this was going to be a thing as well. And so a lot of institutions at that time really diversified their portfolio of students. They looked at new audiences, they looked at new means of delivering technology, and I think some of those same lessons, Are still very applicable.

[00:06:19] We need to think about what type of offerings we have, what's relevant to this student that we serve, and then are there new audiences that we aren't serving well that maybe we should consider? . 

[00:06:32] Allison Turcio: It might be worth pointing out too, that last time that there was sort of lots of talk about the enrollment cliff coming and all of that.

[00:06:39] It didn't really pan out. Yeah. So I think one of the reasons that people are maybe not focused sometimes or talking about this is because, oh yeah, we heard this in the nineties. It didn't pan out. But what was different in the nineties is, Um, the population was going down, but more people were going to college, but we really kind of [00:07:00] hit a top level of that.

[00:07:01] We're not expecting that we will increase. While the number of people choosing to go to college while the population decreases once again. So it's a bit bit different of a scenario this time around. You're 

[00:07:14] Carrie Phillips: absolutely right, and I think that's a key part of this is that it's both aspects of that that are gonna be declining.

[00:07:21] And I think the other thing is there are a lot more other options for students who were maybe considering college than. several years ago. So I think that's another piece of that puzzle that kind of fits into this is higher education isn't the only option that students have these days. . 

[00:07:37] Allison Turcio: Yeah. And within higher education, so many more options than there even were.

[00:07:42] Absolutely. Back in the nineties. So given all of this, I mean, clearly huge threat, but perhaps opportunities for certain institutions too. But what's our role to play as marketers? 

[00:07:55] Carrie Phillips: I think one of the biggest things that we can do in this work is really [00:08:00] be that change agent. So one of the things that I love about marketing is that we work with everybody at the institution.

[00:08:07] We're in conversation with academics, we're in conversation with advancement, enrollment, uh, student retention initiatives. We're in conversation with all of those folks. And so I think there are opportunities that we have to really. Facilitate conversation to help make this process a better fit and to make sure that we're doing everything we can to target and to work with those prospective students.

[00:08:32] Allison Turcio: Yeah, I, I buy that. If not us, then who? 

[00:08:35] Carrie Phillips: Exactly. 

[00:08:36] Allison Turcio: Yeah. Do you have any examples of how marketers are successfully taking on that role of change? . 

[00:08:45] Carrie Phillips: Absolutely. So one of the examples that I can think of, and this is a personal experience I had from a, a different institution, but we sat down and we mapped the enrollment funnel of what a student on our campus would need to do [00:09:00] from the time they decided they were interested all the way to the time they got to campus and showed up on that first move-in day.

[00:09:07] All excited with all their stuff. And what we found is that that. , five divisions and 18 offices. And so if you think about that, well no wonder students are, are not staying in that process. You know, there's so many opportunities through for them to just get lost or get confused or miss a key date or miss a key deadline.

[00:09:30] And so part of what we started to do there is really have conversation and decide, hey, , we're gonna just take this on. And so we brought all of those people through, no edict, through just, Hey, we wanna do better by all of our students. And got everybody in the room once a month to just start talking about our processes and how do we put our students that we're trying to recruit first in that, and how do we make this easy for them?

[00:09:53] And so we looked at how can we streamline that content on our website? How can we streamline that content in our print [00:10:00] and email communications? And what we really found, from the student centered perspective, the student doesn't care which office it is. To them it's, well, it's the university, somebody told me.

[00:10:13] And so we really spent a ton of time trying to make that an easy process. And I think there's so many examples like that, that marketing is really equipped to recognize, Hey, this is a problem. Let's just get everybody in the room and figure it. . 

[00:10:27] Allison Turcio: Yeah. I say this all the time, especially even with alumni audiences, they don't know the difference between the annual fund and alumni relations when you're, and they don't care.

[00:10:36] It's just the institution to them. But that's, that's really for all of our audiences. We think that there's so much nuance about who's talking to them, but. To them, it's just the college or university, and it's a really important thing to remember. Time for a pop quiz. What keywords does your website rank for?

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[00:12:11] Carrie Phillips: I think that's a perfect example. Um, and that's a perfect place to start, you know, I think having conversations as well with academics about what, what programs you're promoting. Um, , you don't wanna promote programs that have capacity challenges because that, again, from a student-centered experience, creates a problem.

[00:12:29] So get that conversation going with, with the academic folks of what things should we be touting and how do we work together on that? So there's so many opportunities that we have to just raise our hands and decide we're gonna be the people to do this and get. 

[00:12:43] Allison Turcio: I think the collaborative approach that you're talking about could be very valuable because in doing that, people become more informed about this enrollment cliff 

[00:12:54] Carrie Phillips: that's coming.

[00:12:55] Absolutely. I think, you know, collaboration is one of the things that I [00:13:00] really, I think is. Pertinent to who I am as a leader and how I like to work because I think we learned so much from each other. I have learned, you know, in conversations with enrollment much about this funnel and how that piece works in conversation with advancement.

[00:13:14] I've learned how they have a similar funnel that they are working with folks and so I think the more we can talk to our various partners on campus and have collaboration, I think the better off we are as a marketing entity to be able to support campus. 

[00:13:30] Allison Turcio: Oh, in your dissertation you talked to marketing professionals at different higher ed institutions about how they're approaching this, what are they doing?

[00:13:41] Anything? Stick out that. is really important for the listeners to know and follow, perhaps . 

[00:13:48] Carrie Phillips: Absolutely. I think three kind of key strategies came out of this, and the first is really a focus on branding, and so it's, I think, really important for institutions to know. Who they are and [00:14:00] be comfortable with who they are.

[00:14:01] And I think marketing plays a role in a, helping make sure that conversation is happening and then maybe if there are varying perspectives on that help to be that bridge that builds consensus. Um, you know, in talking to folks about this, that was, Right at 75% of the people in my study had either just finished branding work or were fixing to start.

[00:14:23] So I think that's a really good place to start, is to figure out who you are as an institution, know what that brand is, because that helps you stand out, that helps you build that affinity and that emotional connection that you can't always do with just, here's our 

[00:14:39] Allison Turcio: stuff. , yeah. Differentiation, 

[00:14:43] Carrie Phillips: right?

[00:14:44] Absolutely. So I think that's one thing. I think another piece is really that strong relationship with admissions or the enrollment function. Uh, you know, what is their enrollment plan? Because if we don't know that from a marketing standpoint, we can be doing a lot of great things, but are we [00:15:00] doing things that help support the goals that the institution has decided are the, the things we need to focus on?

[00:15:07] And. I think sometimes those two entities live in separate worlds and maybe don't collaborate the way that they should. Um, and I think unfortunately that's a missed opportunity because I think there is so much that we can learn from each other and that we can help from each other, you know? From a marketing perspective, we have all this great content.

[00:15:26] We have all of these great testimonials and these beautiful images. What better place to have a partner that wants great content and beautiful images to put in their email campaigns and to put in their conversation. So there's some natural synergies if we can really build that collaboration. And then I think the third thing is a real focus on nicheing and.

[00:15:47] Standing. What programs make sense? What student type makes sense? You know, I think we're past the days as one participant said, we're gonna see more nicheing in the marketplace. We're past a point that we can be all things to all [00:16:00] people. Yes. And so I think we've got to get in the room with the, the academic folks and understand what that looks like on their end.

[00:16:07] Yeah. 

[00:16:08] Allison Turcio: I think nicheing is such a good opportunity for colleges to get at differentiation. And sometimes that means. Talking about one program and not all the programs right, but rising tides lift all boats. So I think for the right opportunity, um, it's good to be open-minded about that nicheing. , um, 

[00:16:30] Carrie Phillips: strategy.

[00:16:30] Absolutely. I, you know, and I think it's one of those things that where we can be intentional about it. I think it makes really good sense, you know, what are the opportunities that are in your local community that really lend to those conversations, I think is a great place to start. You know, if there's a.

[00:16:48] A local organization or a local industry partnership that aligns beautifully. That's an easy differentiation point that maybe doesn't feel quite as, as high level of, we're gonna promote [00:17:00] X program over y. If that's something that's never been done historically at your institution, that's maybe a, a small way to start moving that direction.

[00:17:08] If it's something that our listeners haven't done. . Yeah. When I 

[00:17:12] Allison Turcio: think about nicheing, Northeastern University always comes to mind for me. You know, 20 or so years ago, they were a commuter school in Boston and. . I'm in many different Facebook groups of parents and high school students and admissions Facebook groups and Northeastern University is in demand.

[00:17:32] They are lowering their acceptance rates. They have these really strong ed pools and they really built that all on that co-op I co-op idea. They owned the idea of co-ops. Yeah. And became known for that and raised the profile of the entire university, which has become really interconnected globally now.

[00:17:50] Yeah. Going from a commuter school to what it looks like now, if you would've never guessed that that was the road that they would be on, but it really was built [00:18:00] on. Um, that co-op idea wasn't a built, it wasn't built on these broad themes about Northeastern University. They really went all in on that and it worked out for them really well.

[00:18:11] Carrie Phillips: And I think that's the thing. I think if you look at every institution, they're those opportunities that exist to do just what's 

[00:18:18] Allison Turcio: yours? What's yours, right? 

[00:18:19] Carrie Phillips: And I think we've gotta be comfortable, though, as an institution to just say, this is where we're gonna stake our flag. This is what we're really good at.

[00:18:26] This is who we. And we're gonna lean into that and it's gonna be okay. 

[00:18:31] Allison Turcio: Yeah, I love that. What are the best ways to build buy-in, in collaboration around some of these ideas? Okay, 

[00:18:40] Carrie Phillips: so the first one is maybe a little bit of an unpopular opinion, . So don't, don't hate, 

[00:18:46] Allison Turcio: but I love unpopular opinions. Perfect, perfect.

[00:18:49] Well, I'm 

[00:18:50] Carrie Phillips: gonna put another meeting or two on your calendar, . Um, and I think that's one of the easiest and best ways to get started, um, with building collaboration, [00:19:00] whoever that entity is, set a weekly meeting and. Start working together. Share an agenda, share a group, wrap up of notes, because multiple people in a room are gonna have different perspectives.

[00:19:13] And so the more you share the agenda on the front end, the more you share the notes on the back end, and you have multiple people from both. Groups in that meeting. I think that A speaks to how important it is, but B, it contin, it creates continuity of operations. So if one person is out at others in that conversation or in the loop and starting to meet every single week is important.

[00:19:35] I think that helps you also, you know, it humanizes that group. You learn what somebody's child is up to, or whose puppy is doing what, and so you start to. , other areas that you've historically worked with as a division, you start to see them as people. And I think that's a really important part of the collaboration is that we are two different people, or we are a group of people that care about this university, care about [00:20:00] the work that's doing.

[00:20:00] And when you can kind of put that mindset in it, I think that's a huge first step in getting collaboration. 

[00:20:08] Allison Turcio: So don't wait. Number one, right? And then don't tell. This is not an activity of the marketing office telling the other divisions in the college what they need to be doing. That's not what this is.

[00:20:23] Carrie Phillips: Exactly. This is very much a collaboration of here are things maybe that we are doing. So share your success stories, um, share things that you've had successes with other departments, but then also ask what they need help with and how that other area is needing your expertise. Um, another opportunity that we're trying to do at, uh, my current institution is we're doing lunch and learn.

[00:20:49] So we have a lot of marketing expertise and we know that multiple areas on campus, deans, department heads, um, , a lot of other folks are having to do [00:21:00] more of that touchpoint conversation, and so we're doing a lunch and learn about every other week where we are trying to provide insight. Sometimes it's talking about how you can make easy updates to your website.

[00:21:12] Sometimes it's talking about your content strategy for social media. Sometimes it's talking about how to critique great photos on your iPhone. So we're really trying to offer tools that can help those folks be success. . Um, and I think that's really important and I think the final kind of collaboration tip I would say is make it easy.

[00:21:32] And I use the example of recycling. If you ask most people, is recycling good? They're gonna raise their hand and say, yes, it is recycling's good. But then when you have to start separating the plastic from the glass and does number two, plastic, is it recyclable or is it number five? And, oh, I've gotta dry all of these things before I can put them in.

[00:21:52] All of a sudden, people. , throw it in the trash. And so when we give people our brand book and it's a 70, [00:22:00] 80 page book, and we say, here, read this. It's everything you need to know what to do. Well they're gonna do the exact same thing. They're just gonna set it aside and do whatever. Um, so if we don't make it easy for people to be collaborative and to be partners with us, then we're never gonna have that collaboration with them the way we.

[00:22:20] Allison Turcio: do you have any examples of institutions that are really doing some great things right now to set themselves up for what's to come in 2025? 2026? 

[00:22:31] Carrie Phillips: Yeah, so a couple of things. You know, I talked a little bit that a lot of folks are really doing that brand work. Um, also seeing a lot of marketing focus on the tech side and how the technology of marketing automation, marketing clarity can come into place.

[00:22:47] And so seeing a lot of people that are really focused on that. And then I would say right at a third of the institutions that I talked to in my study, did not. , um, regular conversation with [00:23:00] enrollment and they weren't in regular conversation with academics. And I think those are two huge things that can be started right now to really continue to move that needle and prepare for the enrollment cliff.

[00:23:11] There's still work to be done there. 

[00:23:13] Allison Turcio: Yeah. I mean, we can't avoid the enrollment cliff, right? But the moves we make right now are all about shoring up our market position for when we hit that time. 

[00:23:23] Carrie Phillips: Exactly. You know, and I think a lot of it too is looking at who are your markets? What are your targets? You know, several of the participants that I spoke with said, okay, we've been really focused nationally in trying to build our national prestige, and we've looked at the analysis of that and we've made some headway there.

[00:23:41] but we haven't quite built the brand presence that we want and we don't have the budget to compete at that level. So let's pull this back and focus more on our region. Yeah. People who know us, and let's really dial in on that group of students. They're familiar with us, they know what our institution is about, and we can then really [00:24:00] take, because they already have that brand.

[00:24:02] And we can really start to personalize that journey and talk more to them about programs and areas that are of interest. And I think folks that are looking at things that, at that strategic of a level are gonna be in a really good place. 

[00:24:13] Allison Turcio: Yes, it's such a great concept. Build your market position where you have strength, where, where you might be weaker.

[00:24:23] That's not the place. So shoot if, if you don't have a really strong national presence right now, chasing that is probably gonna get your eye off the. 

[00:24:32] Carrie Phillips: Absolutely, and I think, I think marketers at a core fundamentally know that. I think where their real challenge comes in is having to manage up that conversation some, because that's not as to say, Hey, we're gonna stay right here in our own backyard.

[00:24:48] That's not a sexy conversation to have it. No. At a cabinet meeting or at some of those key decision maker. 

[00:24:54] Allison Turcio: Well, and it all comes from pride, right? Because they see all the great things [00:25:00] happening on your campus and so they think everyone should know about this. It's amazing. Um, but maybe don't realize that every college thinks the same way.

[00:25:10] Right? 

[00:25:11] Carrie Phillips: Exactly, 

[00:25:12] Allison Turcio: exactly. So you mentioned challenges and so this is a very challeng. thing to face. So there's definitely going to be challenges. There's, this is not an easy path to go on, so what might some of those be so that we can be very aware of them, and then how can we overcome them? 

[00:25:29] Carrie Phillips: So I think.

[00:25:31] institutions ha do have a lot of challenges. I think marketers in particular, there's the whole concept that higher ed is struggling with perception, and so I think that's gonna impact marketers as a whole. Um, but more specific challenges that I think marketing themes. Face is first buy-in, you know, making sure that they've got the right people in the rooms and they're in the right conversations.

[00:25:56] You know, the latest data says that we've made some advances in terms of having [00:26:00] representation at that executive council or cabinet meeting, but we're still only between 60 and 70% of marketing teams are represented there. So we've still got some work to do there. I think another big challenge is, , what is marketing's objective and what is the real role?

[00:26:18] Depending on who you ask. Some people feel that marketing should be a very strategic entity that's focused on the whole institution, but then there's the, also this part of it that we're a little bit of a service arm and how those two, um, Intersect and what that looks like can vary day to day. But I think we have to be really cognizant as marketing professionals that we don't get tyranny of the urgent and those service things that are urgent and on fire get in the.

[00:26:49] in the way of thinking about that big picture conversation and that big strategic work. Um, and then I think the final is cost. Um, you know, marketing is very much a, [00:27:00] you have to spend money to make money, and I think a lot of times as institutions are looking at cutting budgets and cutting expenditures, marketing is an easy thing to cut, especially that brand work because the ROI on it is a lot harder to.

[00:27:17] And so I think it's really important for us to be able to advocate for what we're doing and why those spins are so critical. 

[00:27:23] Allison Turcio: Yeah, I mean, it's not a cost really, it's an investment. If you can find ways to calculate the return on that investment, that might help the argument. I went to, um, American Marketing Association's Symposium of higher ed in November, and I went to a session by Google, which showed the advertising spending in our sector.

[00:27:44] And to keep up with the spend, we would have to double what our budgets were in 20. . And actually when we're advertising, especially to teenagers, we're not competing with the other [00:28:00] colleges in our state or whatever. The pool of colleges, that's your competitors say. I mean, we're competing with Netflix, right?

[00:28:06] We're competing with, um, Disney, Coca-Cola, all, all Nike, all these people who want teens purchasing from them. Right. So it is, it is a 

[00:28:17] Carrie Phillips: costly. . It absolutely is. And I think you're spot on. We've gotta be able to talk about the roi, but I also think we have to create this conversation around, this is how we stay out there in terms of brand awareness, in terms of messaging, in terms of affinity.

[00:28:37] Because if you look at the enrollment funnel, and if a student has never heard of you before, the likelihood that they're going to hear about you. Become familiar enough to inquire research you and decide to enroll that same year. That's a really short runway for all of that to happen. And so that's where some of this brand awareness work is so critical is it gives you a much [00:29:00] longer runway to work with so that they have heard about you in ninth grade, heard about you in 10th grade, heard about you as they really start thinking about that between their 11th and 12th grade.

[00:29:11] All right, 

[00:29:11] Allison Turcio: so as we wrap up, I have one final question. What's the first thing our LI listeners should do after they've finished listening to this episode? Let's give them a tangible to-do item right now. Okay. Can I give them two? Oh, sure. You guys all love extra work, right? Right. Homework. 

[00:29:29] Carrie Phillips: Okay. So I think the first is say thank you.

[00:29:32] Say thank you to those people who you've already built partnerships with. You know, engage with them and let them know that their work matters. Um, I had some feedback several years ago from a dean that was saying, you're not doing enough to highlight the programs in my college. Well, I. . I wasn't doing a good enough job sharing that with them.

[00:29:52] So I started once a month sending out, here's all we've done to really help you. And all of a sudden we were their best friend. I didn't do [00:30:00] anything different except send that email. So make sure you're saying thank you to those folks. Um, and then two is explore one new collaboration. So is that admissions or is that a community engagement partner?

[00:30:11] Reach out and get that collaborative meeting. 

[00:30:15] Allison Turcio: Carrie, thank you so much. I know that you did this dissertation because the enrollment cliff like piqued your interest and then you went all in and studied how people are reacting to it, but now all the rest of us are benefiting from it. So thank you so much for coming on and sharing your insights with 

[00:30:31] Carrie Phillips: us.

[00:30:32] Thank you so much for having me. This is such fun. I love talking about this. So thanks to everybody for listening, 

[00:30:37] Allison Turcio: and thank you to our listeners for tuning in. If you found this information valuable, please subscribe to the podcast and share this episode with a friend or colleague. Who might also find it useful?

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